We often see statistics being quoted.
Perhaps it’s in a magazine with the ‘8 out of 10 women agree’ type of thing.
Or, it could be on the news, ‘200 people out of 300 survey think that so and so
made a bad decision’. They are everywhere, but just how reliable are they. We
will explore the issue below.
Firstly, it is important to note that not
all surveys are performed equal. Different polls will use different
methodologies, and this then presents its own problems. Is the science valid?
Has the survey been carried out in a scientific manner, or is it simply a
matter of ask a few people a few questions and then extrapolating the findings
to everyone. How many people have been surveyed? What are the characteristics
of the group being asked? All of these things make a difference, and if you do
not have access to this sort of information, then it is better to take the
experiment with a pinch of salt, because you cannot know if it is reliable or
not.
A poll may sound fantastic. For instance,
‘we surveyed 1000 people and 8% told us this, that and the other’. That sounds good;surely,
a group of 1000 people is going to offer a fair and unbiased response to the
question. However, this may not be the case. For example, imagine there is an
argument that the local racetrack (e.g. Silverstone) should be closed down
because it is too near to a primary school and the noise is distracting for the
children. If you then polled people at a Formula 1 event at the weekend if the
track should be closed, the majority would say no. However, if you asked the
parents of pupils at the school, they may say yes.
As you can appreciate, it is important,
when undertaking a public opinion poll, to ensure that you ask a wide audience
so that you do not receive answers that are biased. If you are not told who the
participants in a study are, how can you know whether the results are accurate?
When magazines tell you ‘8 out of 10 women think this product makes you look
younger’ who are the women they asked? Those that work for the company and have
a vested interest in the product? Or, those who are impartial and genuine.
These are questions that you should be asking whenever you are trying to gauge
the validity of a public opinion poll.
Opinion polls are a great way of gauging
certain types of information, and they can be very good for market researchers.
However, it is important that you question the claims that are made and that
you find out a little more about the study before you take it as gospel. In other
words, you must be objective when making evaluations about online opinion
polls.
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