Thursday 1 August 2013

Are Public Opinion Polls Reliable?

We often see statistics being quoted. Perhaps it’s in a magazine with the ‘8 out of 10 women agree’ type of thing. Or, it could be on the news, ‘200 people out of 300 survey think that so and so made a bad decision’. They are everywhere, but just how reliable are they. We will explore the issue below.

Firstly, it is important to note that not all surveys are performed equal. Different polls will use different methodologies, and this then presents its own problems. Is the science valid? Has the survey been carried out in a scientific manner, or is it simply a matter of ask a few people a few questions and then extrapolating the findings to everyone. How many people have been surveyed? What are the characteristics of the group being asked? All of these things make a difference, and if you do not have access to this sort of information, then it is better to take the experiment with a pinch of salt, because you cannot know if it is reliable or not.

A poll may sound fantastic. For instance, ‘we surveyed 1000 people and 8% told us this, that and the other’. That sounds good;surely, a group of 1000 people is going to offer a fair and unbiased response to the question. However, this may not be the case. For example, imagine there is an argument that the local racetrack (e.g. Silverstone) should be closed down because it is too near to a primary school and the noise is distracting for the children. If you then polled people at a Formula 1 event at the weekend if the track should be closed, the majority would say no. However, if you asked the parents of pupils at the school, they may say yes.

As you can appreciate, it is important, when undertaking a public opinion poll, to ensure that you ask a wide audience so that you do not receive answers that are biased. If you are not told who the participants in a study are, how can you know whether the results are accurate? When magazines tell you ‘8 out of 10 women think this product makes you look younger’ who are the women they asked? Those that work for the company and have a vested interest in the product? Or, those who are impartial and genuine. These are questions that you should be asking whenever you are trying to gauge the validity of a public opinion poll.

Opinion polls are a great way of gauging certain types of information, and they can be very good for market researchers. However, it is important that you question the claims that are made and that you find out a little more about the study before you take it as gospel. In other words, you must be objective when making evaluations about online opinion polls.
Follow us :
  

No comments:

Post a Comment